Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 27 2020 | 1887 | 22343 | 55 | 6 | 489 | 655 |
| September 28 2020 | 1940 | 22384 | 56 | 6 | 464 | 681 |
| September 29 2020 | 1969 | 22457 | 57 | 6 | 442 | 683 |
| September 30 2020 | 2000 | 22608 | 57 | 6 | 414 | 664 |
| October 01 2020 | 2016 | 22604 | 59 | 7 | 399 | 618 |
| October 02 2020 | 2058 | 23129 | 60 | 7 | 408 | 582 |
| October 03 2020 | 2100 | 23296 | 63 | 7 | 397 | 573 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.7 | 5% | 20 | 0.17% | 25 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 5.1 | 15.9% | 63 | 0.46% | 97 | 0.71% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 11.7 | 31.7% | 126 | 0.6% | 206 | 0.98% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 6.1 | 14.1% | 56 | 0.41% | 77 | 0.57% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.7 | 7.3% | 29 | 0.28% | 38 | 0.36% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.9 | 12.3% | 49 | 0.39% | 63 | 0.5% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 3.1 | 8.8% | 35 | 0.3% | 43 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 6 | 2.1 | 5.3% | 21 | 0.2% | 26 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 42 | 37.1 | 100% | 397 | 0.38% | 573 | 0.55% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 27 2020 | 546 | 14662 | 23 | 0 | 99 | 128 |
| September 28 2020 | 555 | 14749 | 23 | 0 | 99 | 135 |
| September 29 2020 | 567 | 14825 | 23 | 0 | 101 | 144 |
| September 30 2020 | 585 | 14916 | 23 | 0 | 109 | 151 |
| October 01 2020 | 595 | 15034 | 24 | 0 | 115 | 148 |
| October 02 2020 | 610 | 15169 | 24 | 0 | 128 | 154 |
| October 03 2020 | 630 | 15327 | 25 | 0 | 141 | 164 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.3 | 7.8% | 11 | 0.14% | 13 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.0 | 10.6% | 15 | 0.18% | 17 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 2.3 | 14.9% | 21 | 0.3% | 26 | 0.37% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 2.9 | 14.9% | 21 | 0.25% | 24 | 0.29% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 1.3 | 9.2% | 13 | 0.17% | 19 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 2.7 | 19.9% | 28 | 0.29% | 30 | 0.31% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.4 | 9.2% | 13 | 0.15% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.4 | 12.1% | 17 | 0.24% | 18 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 20 | 15.4 | 100% | 141 | 0.22% | 164 | 0.25% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 27 2020 | 466 | 8957 | 21 | 4 | 61 | 70 |
| September 28 2020 | 478 | 8960 | 21 | 5 | 71 | 80 |
| September 29 2020 | 482 | 8995 | 22 | 5 | 71 | 81 |
| September 30 2020 | 490 | 9086 | 23 | 6 | 70 | 87 |
| October 01 2020 | 498 | 9085 | 23 | 6 | 78 | 93 |
| October 02 2020 | 504 | 9093 | 24 | 6 | 82 | 97 |
| October 03 2020 | 516 | 9140 | 24 | 6 | 91 | 105 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 27 2020 | 3047 | 25107 | 46 | 2 | 926 | 1293 |
| September 28 2020 | 3055 | 25337 | 46 | 2 | 680 | 1256 |
| September 29 2020 | 3095 | 25426 | 47 | 2 | 620 | 1206 |
| September 30 2020 | 3130 | 25673 | 50 | 3 | 562 | 1119 |
| October 01 2020 | 3205 | 26119 | 50 | 3 | 583 | 1084 |
| October 02 2020 | 3245 | 26344 | 52 | 3 | 547 | 870 |
| October 03 2020 | 3284 | 26591 | 54 | 4 | 499 | 809 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 1% | 5 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 9.4 | 23.6% | 118 | 0.71% | 219 | 1.32% |
| 20-29 | 17 | 13.3 | 35.3% | 176 | 0.83% | 322 | 1.51% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 4.7 | 9.8% | 49 | 0.36% | 69 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.1 | 6.8% | 34 | 0.25% | 45 | 0.33% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.7 | 9.4% | 47 | 0.33% | 56 | 0.39% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.4 | 8% | 40 | 0.28% | 45 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.9 | 6% | 30 | 0.23% | 47 | 0.36% |
| All ages | 39 | 42.0 | 100% | 499 | 0.42% | 809 | 0.68% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 27 2020 | 9607 | 195692 | 366 | 41 | 1365 | 1985 |
| September 28 2020 | 9763 | 196362 | 368 | 41 | 1308 | 1917 |
| September 29 2020 | 9857 | 197220 | 369 | 42 | 1222 | 1961 |
| September 30 2020 | 10129 | 198198 | 375 | 43 | 1314 | 2145 |
| October 01 2020 | 10201 | 199479 | 379 | 43 | 1306 | 1959 |
| October 02 2020 | 10217 | 200458 | 382 | 43 | 1270 | 1762 |
| October 03 2020 | 10339 | 201164 | 384 | 43 | 1299 | 1704 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 5.3 | 4% | 52 | 0.09% | 63 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 17 | 20.9 | 20% | 260 | 0.37% | 391 | 0.55% |
| 20-29 | 32 | 30.6 | 26.9% | 350 | 0.34% | 477 | 0.46% |
| 30-39 | 19 | 21.4 | 16.6% | 215 | 0.28% | 266 | 0.35% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 12.7 | 10.9% | 141 | 0.21% | 175 | 0.27% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 17.4 | 12.3% | 160 | 0.24% | 185 | 0.28% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 8.1 | 5.9% | 76 | 0.14% | 94 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 9 | 5.1 | 3.5% | 45 | 0.09% | 53 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 122 | 121.6 | 100% | 1299 | 0.24% | 1704 | 0.31% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 27 2020 | 115862 | 1399218 | 7095 | 1281 | 21116 | 26677 |
| September 28 2020 | 117588 | 1405377 | 7142 | 1283 | 20309 | 27632 |
| September 29 2020 | 119955 | 1413774 | 7209 | 1300 | 20393 | 28651 |
| September 30 2020 | 122274 | 1423247 | 7300 | 1327 | 21047 | 29562 |
| October 01 2020 | 125161 | 1434721 | 7409 | 1348 | 22663 | 30415 |
| October 02 2020 | 127906 | 1445571 | 7506 | 1353 | 23736 | 30627 |
| October 03 2020 | 130798 | 1456763 | 7588 | 1372 | 24866 | 31236 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 92 | 78.7 | 3.3% | 825 | 0.13% | 1022 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 285 | 267.7 | 12% | 2976 | 0.39% | 3975 | 0.53% |
| 20-29 | 563 | 485.4 | 20.6% | 5113 | 0.68% | 6746 | 0.89% |
| 30-39 | 455 | 380.6 | 15% | 3731 | 0.49% | 4604 | 0.61% |
| 40-49 | 439 | 351.0 | 14% | 3493 | 0.5% | 4234 | 0.61% |
| 50-59 | 496 | 408.0 | 16.3% | 4062 | 0.5% | 4889 | 0.6% |
| 60-69 | 332 | 274.4 | 10.8% | 2692 | 0.36% | 3293 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 230 | 204.6 | 7.9% | 1974 | 0.31% | 2473 | 0.39% |
| All ages | 2892 | 2450.4 | 100% | 24866 | 0.43% | 31236 | 0.54% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.8 | 71.3 | 98.4 | 37.1 | 52 | 17.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.4 | 15.4 | 8.4 | 12.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.2 | 8.6 | 3 | 23.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68.4 | 132.3 | 151.3 | 42 | 115.6 | 15% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.2 | 55 | 45.9 | 121.6 | 150.1 | 12.4% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.6 | 52.5 | 89.1 | 2450.4 | 1838 | 21.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 20.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-24 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1508"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges